A comprehensive study on Portugal’s public gas distribution networks and their value chain has revealed potential challenges for the industry in the coming decades. The analysis, which considered global trends and European Union projections, paints a complex picture of the future of natural gas consumption in the country.
The study, which examined three potential scenarios for the evolution of Portugal’s energy market, predicts a continuous decline in domestic natural gas demand starting from 2025. In the central scenario, which takes into account current policies and targets, residential gas consumption is expected to drop to 16% by 2030 and further plummet to around 1% by 2050.
This projected decrease in demand could have significant implications for the gas supply network. The analysis suggests that a substantial reduction in gas demand could lead to harmful consequences for network financing, with potential losses exceeding 527 million euros by 2050.
However, the study also emphasizes that a future energy mix dominated overwhelmingly by electrification is unlikely. It anticipates a significant role for renewable gases and natural gas in the coming years. The report aligns with the perspective that while natural gas may lose prominence up to 2040, it will remain important in industry, services, and even the residential market.
The analysis also highlights that despite the electrification process progressing slower than expected, renewable gases are not advancing rapidly either. Nevertheless, biomethane shows potential for faster progress, particularly with government support through initiatives like the Biomethane Action Plan.
In conclusion, the study underscores the importance of maintaining all energy assets in good condition and preserving a diversified energy matrix, given the high uncertainty in current markets. It emphasizes that the gas distribution network remains crucial for energy security and the transition towards renewable energies in all analyzed scenarios.
The report also notes that Portugal’s relatively young gas network offers additional benefits in terms of its potential and adaptability for the introduction of renewable gases in the medium to long term.
