The National Statistics Institute (INE) today released the budget balance, in national accounts, for the first quarter, after the country closed the year 2023 with a surplus of 1.2%, exceeding official forecasts.
With the release of the quarterly national accounts by institutional sector by the INE, the evolution of the public accounts balance until March will be known, at a time when the Finance Minister has already said that Portugal will have a slight budget surplus this year and in 2025.
In recent statements to journalists, Finance Minister Miranda Sarmento said that the government’s estimate is still for “a budget surplus of around 0.2%-0.3% of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] this year and next”, which “was what was originally forecast in the 2024 Budget”.
Miranda Sarmento pointed out that the planned surplus is based on the measures approved by the government, but admitted that it was necessary to assess “what margin there is” to accommodate other parliamentary initiatives.
These statements by the Finance Minister came after warnings from the Bank of Portugal about a possible return to the deficit due to measures with a budgetary impact such as tax cuts and salary negotiations in the public administration.
From a public accounting perspective (which takes into account the inflows and outflows of money), the state recorded a deficit of 259 million euros by the end of the first quarter of this year, which hasn’t happened since 2022, according to the budget execution data released by the Directorate-General for the Budget (DGO).
The balance calculated by the INE, whose figure was released today, differs from that of the DGO, since it is in national accounts (the one that is relevant to the European institutions), which means that it is calculated taking into account a logic of revenue and expenditure commitments.
Among the indicators to be released today is the household savings rate.
